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SLU/YouGov Analysis: Preliminary Polling on the 2024 Presidential Race

by Kenneth Warren, Ph.D.

Kenneth Warren, Ph.D., provides expert analysis on the latest SLU/YouGov Poll results and how Missourians are feeling heading into the 2024 presidential election.

Despite former President Donald Trump’s legal problems mostly stemming from his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, he remains popular in Missouri. A hefty percentage of Missouri Republicans, 61%, support him over all other Republican candidates for the Republican nomination. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis comes in a very distant second with 21.5%, with all others in the single digits. Consequently, our SLU/YouGov poll shows Trump as the heavy favorite to win Missouri’s Republican primary. Trump’s support among Missouri Republicans is somewhat higher than he is polling nationally, where he has a realclearpolitics.com percentage of 54.5%, with DeSantis second at 15%. 

Likely voters' responses to 'Which of the following candidates would you be most likely to support?': 52% Donald Trump, 17% Ron DeSantis, 5% Nikki Haley, 9% Mike Pence, 5% Tim Scott, and 12% Other.

Likely voters' responses to 'Which of the following candidates would you be most likely to support?': 52% Donald Trump, 17% Ron DeSantis, 5% Nikki Haley, 9% Mike Pence, 5% Tim Scott, and 12% Other.

We asked in our poll, “If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?” Fifty percent of Missourians said they would vote for the Republican nominee, which presumably would be Trump, while only 35% said they would vote for President Biden. This places the Republican candidate about fifteen percentage points ahead of Biden, or by about the same percentage that Trump beat Biden in the 2020 presidential election in Missouri. 

Likely voters' responses to 'If the election for President of the United States were being held today, who would you vote for?': 35% Joe Biden (D), 50% R, 6% Other, and 9% Not sure.

Likely voters' responses to 'If the election for President of the United States were being held today, who would you vote for?': 35% Joe Biden (D), 50% R, 6% Other, and 9% Not sure.

However, the 2024 presidential election is still fifteen months away, and much can happen in politics during this period. Our SLU/YouGov poll shows what almost all other polls show. That is that Trump is not losing ground among Republicans despite the problems he has faced, including an increasing number of indictments. National polling shows that Trump is holding his own against President Biden, with the realclearpolitics.com average disclosing a dead heat with Biden at 44.8% and Trump at 44.1%. 

Biden is not polling well because he has problems of his own, including his advanced age, his son’s legal problems, and perceptions that he is not handling the economy very well. However, when asked about other candidates our likely voters would support, poll data indicate that evidently they are pretty much resigned to a presidential race between Biden and Trump because few voters mentioned any other candidates by name that they would be interested in supporting. “Not sure” headed the list. We will be polling again on the presidential race as Election Day draws closer.  

This analysis is based on data from the August 2023 SLU/YouGov poll and reflects the opinion of the author.